ML Analysis — CENTRAL DESERT BEHAVIORAL HH
CCN 324014 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
42
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health12/25
RCM Upside11/25
Market Position4/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-6.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 6.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.3%, 22.3%]. P47 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 281591.750 | -0.1811 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 262752.656 | +0.1718 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.451 | -0.0717 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Occupancy × Net-to-Gross | 0.477 | +0.0217 | Higher Occupancy × Net-to-Gross increases predicte | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.556 | +0.0210 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$0
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
6.7%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
NM distress rate: 41.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.858 | -0.309 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.190 | -0.024 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.556 | +0.084 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 281591.750 | +0.077 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 64.000 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $0
Current margin: 6.7%
Projected margin: 6.7%
Grade: D
Comps: 24
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |