ML Analysis — PLAINS REGIONAL MEDICAL CTR - CLOVIS
CCN 320022 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
54
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside16/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-7.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -1.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-36.0%, 20.6%]. P43 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 1149291.390 | +0.0626 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1133478.880 | -0.0622 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 278059.449 | -0.0197 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Occupancy | 0.245 | -0.0159 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.253 | -0.0147 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m |
Turnaround: 37%Turnaround possible (37%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Expense/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
54.1%
Distress Risk
$4.6M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
2.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P51. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
NM distress rate: 41.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.245 | +0.260 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.003 | -0.086 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1133478.880 | +0.026 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 100.000 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.315 | -0.002 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.370 | +0.001 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.6M
Current margin: -1.4%
Projected margin: 2.7%
Grade: D
Comps: 20
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.245 | 0.678 | 43.3% | $2.9M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.682 | 0.798 | 11.6% | $1.7M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.5 | [25.0, 75.0] | P37 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |