ML Analysis — SAN JUAN REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 320005 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
58
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility12/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-3.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -4.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-31.4%, 25.2%]. P54 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 1816399.937 | +0.0331 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1900575.953 | -0.0300 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.252 | +0.0204 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.027 | +0.0136 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Count | 191.000 | -0.0066 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 45%Turnaround possible (45%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
48.5%
Distress Risk
$5.3M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-3.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P21. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
NM distress rate: 41.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.326 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.074 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1816399.937 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.518 | +0.007 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 191.000 | +0.006 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.341 | +0.002 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.3M
Current margin: -4.6%
Projected margin: -3.1%
Grade: D
Comps: 1974
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.585 | 0.754 | 16.9% | $2.5M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.518 | 0.763 | 24.4% | $1.6M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.326 | 0.353 | 2.7% | $1.1M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |