ML Analysis — GERALD CHAMPION REGIONAL MEDICAL CTR
CCN 320004 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
60
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-0.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -11.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-28.9%, 27.7%]. P61 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 4159863.636 | -0.3083 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 3726463.197 | +0.2997 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1882722.440 | +0.0335 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.116 | +0.0245 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.183 | -0.0208 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 49%Turnaround possible (49%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Expense/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
42.4%
Distress Risk
$10.5M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-7.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P59. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
NM distress rate: 41.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Per Bed | 3726463.197 | -0.127 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.006 | -0.083 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.183 | -0.083 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.505 | +0.019 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 66.000 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.360 | +0.006 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $10.5M
Current margin: -11.6%
Projected margin: -7.3%
Grade: D
Comps: 23
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.183 | 0.425 | 24.2% | $7.0M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.634 | 0.784 | 15.0% | $2.2M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.505 | 0.704 | 19.9% | $1.3M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.3 | [25.0, 75.0] | P52 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |