ML Analysis — ALTA VISTA REGIONAL HOSPITAL
CCN 320003 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
36
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-11.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -33.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-40.2%, 16.4%]. P33 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 470706.935 | -0.1547 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 629084.413 | +0.1267 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 44341.958 | -0.0275 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.106 | +0.0273 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Occupancy | 0.094 | -0.0245 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 30%Turnaround possible (30%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$6.5M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
-3.7%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
NM distress rate: 41.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.094 | +0.400 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.392 | +0.011 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.175 | -0.086 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 470706.935 | +0.065 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 46.000 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.5M
Current margin: -33.7%
Projected margin: -3.7%
Grade: A
Comps: 34
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.094 | 0.643 | 54.9% | $3.6M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.608 | 0.744 | 13.6% | $2.0M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.175 | 0.498 | 32.2% | $817K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |