ML Analysis — RAMAPO RIDGE PSYCHIATRIC
CCN 314019 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
50
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-5.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -34.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-33.3%, 23.3%]. P49 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross | 0.760 | +0.0438 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1351887.103 | -0.0317 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy × Net-to-Gross | 0.543 | +0.0266 | Higher Occupancy × Net-to-Gross increases predicte | |
| Expense/Bed | 1816727.345 | -0.0197 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.263 | -0.0178 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m |
Turnaround: 41%Turnaround possible (41%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Net-to-Gross.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
51.3%
Distress Risk
$6.2M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
-26.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P88. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
NJ distress rate: 47.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.715 | -0.176 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.760 | +0.174 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.135 | +0.046 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.519 | +0.033 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1351887.103 | +0.013 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 58.000 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.2M
Current margin: -34.4%
Projected margin: -26.5%
Grade: C
Comps: 29
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.347 | 0.741 | 39.5% | $5.9M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.715 | 0.750 | 3.6% | $236K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P38 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |