ML Analysis — SSH - ATLANTIC CITY
CCN 312023 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
39
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside7/25
Market Position6/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-4.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 11.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-32.8%, 23.8%]. P51 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 621954.433 | +0.1275 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 701663.433 | -0.1225 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.034 | +0.0482 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.134 | -0.0263 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.401 | -0.0226 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$10.1M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
59.3%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
NJ distress rate: 47.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.674 | -0.138 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.747 | +0.072 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.134 | -0.104 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 701663.433 | +0.052 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 30.000 | -0.016 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $10.1M
Current margin: 11.4%
Projected margin: 59.3%
Grade: A
Comps: 10
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.253 | 0.787 | 53.4% | $8.0M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.134 | 0.760 | 62.5% | $1.5M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.674 | 0.755 | 8.1% | $536K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |