ML Analysis — SSH WILLINGBORO
CCN 312022 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
38
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health12/25
RCM Upside10/25
Market Position4/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency3/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-5.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 9.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.1%, 22.5%]. P47 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 477446.536 | -0.1538 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 433650.956 | +0.1507 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.051 | +0.0434 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.126 | -0.0272 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 254751.898 | -0.0205 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
nan%
Distress Risk
$8.4M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
34.8%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
NJ distress rate: 47.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.126 | -0.108 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.599 | +0.047 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 477446.536 | +0.065 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 69.000 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.534 | -0.008 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $8.4M
Current margin: 9.2%
Projected margin: 34.8%
Grade: A
Comps: 32
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.401 | 0.753 | 35.2% | $5.3M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.126 | 0.553 | 42.7% | $1.6M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.534 | 0.762 | 22.9% | $1.5M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |