ML Analysis — THE REHAB HOSPITAL AT RARITAN BAY
CCN 312018 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
36
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside14/25
Market Position4/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency1/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-6.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 1.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.5%, 22.1%]. P46 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 374696.684 | -0.1681 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 369994.210 | +0.1586 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.071 | +0.0375 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.170 | -0.0223 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 206731.534 | -0.0221 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
nan%
Distress Risk
$7.0M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
25.8%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
NJ distress rate: 47.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.170 | -0.089 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.581 | +0.044 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 374696.684 | +0.071 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.552 | -0.025 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 76.000 | -0.010 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.0M
Current margin: 1.3%
Projected margin: 25.8%
Grade: A
Comps: 39
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.419 | 0.722 | 30.3% | $4.6M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.552 | 0.745 | 19.4% | $1.3M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.170 | 0.519 | 34.9% | $1.2M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |