ML Analysis — HACKENSACK UMC AT PASCACK VALLEY
CCN 310130 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
56
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health18/25
RCM Upside7/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
1.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 15.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-26.5%, 30.1%]. P66 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 1907330.295 | +0.0458 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.264 | -0.0117 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 78.000 | +0.0110 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.005 | +0.0101 | Higher Medicaid % increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.178 | +0.0068 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
44.6%
Distress Risk
$5.9M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
18.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P5. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
NJ distress rate: 47.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.005 | -0.083 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.264 | -0.047 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.556 | -0.028 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1907330.295 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 78.000 | -0.009 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.321 | -0.001 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.9M
Current margin: 15.0%
Projected margin: 18.9%
Grade: D
Comps: 38
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.264 | 0.487 | 22.3% | $3.9M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.556 | 0.732 | 17.6% | $1.2M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.673 | 0.732 | 5.8% | $876K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P36 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |