ML Analysis — ST LUKES WARREN HOSPITAL
CCN 310060 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
58
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health19/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
6.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 28.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-21.5%, 35.1%]. P77 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2182330.250 | +0.0842 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.074 | +0.0367 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.136 | -0.0261 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1568784.880 | +0.0109 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1149525.237 | +0.0092 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
44.6%
Distress Risk
$10.8M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
33.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P49. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
NJ distress rate: 47.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.136 | -0.104 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.030 | -0.059 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2182330.250 | -0.036 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.427 | +0.017 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 92.000 | -0.008 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.527 | -0.001 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $10.8M
Current margin: 28.1%
Projected margin: 33.5%
Grade: D
Comps: 43
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.136 | 0.413 | 27.7% | $6.5M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.543 | 0.741 | 19.8% | $3.0M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.527 | 0.729 | 20.3% | $1.3M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.5 | [25.0, 75.0] | P37 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |