ML Analysis — CLARA MAASS MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 310009 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
54
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility13/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-2.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -3.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-31.0%, 25.6%]. P56 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Log(Beds) | 5.557 | +0.0275 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1434233.378 | +0.0275 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1390610.301 | -0.0263 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.211 | -0.0177 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 259.000 | -0.0172 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 45%Turnaround possible (45%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Log(Beds).
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
42.6%
Distress Risk
$2.5M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-2.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P0. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
NJ distress rate: 47.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.756 | -0.215 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.211 | -0.070 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.234 | -0.016 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 259.000 | +0.015 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1390610.301 | +0.011 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.094 | +0.005 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.5M
Current margin: -3.1%
Projected margin: -2.4%
Grade: D
Comps: 50
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.211 | 0.251 | 3.9% | $1.7M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.672 | 0.730 | 5.8% | $869K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |