ML Analysis — EXETER HOSPITAL INC.
CCN 300023 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
62
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health12/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility12/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
3.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -3.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-24.5%, 32.1%]. P71 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2848847.323 | +0.1772 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2938943.384 | -0.1579 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1916418.451 | +0.0346 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.027 | +0.0137 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Medicaid % | 0.006 | +0.0101 | Higher Medicaid % increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 57%Turnaround possible (57%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
41.6%
Distress Risk
$1.4M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-2.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P38. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
NH distress rate: 42.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.673 | -0.137 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.006 | -0.083 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2848847.323 | -0.075 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.325 | -0.020 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.392 | +0.011 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 99.000 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.4M
Current margin: -3.2%
Projected margin: -2.7%
Grade: D
Comps: 12
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.673 | 0.813 | 14.0% | $926K | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.325 | 0.338 | 1.3% | $442K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |