ML Analysis — PARKLAND MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 300017 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
57
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health19/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
15.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 47.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-13.1%, 43.5%]. P89 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2334220.015 | +0.1054 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1232147.691 | +0.0524 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.096 | +0.0305 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.170 | -0.0222 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1416425.771 | +0.0180 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
42.4%
Distress Risk
$8.4M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
52.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P92. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
NH distress rate: 42.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.170 | -0.088 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.607 | -0.076 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.014 | -0.075 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2334220.015 | -0.045 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.425 | +0.017 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 68.000 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $8.4M
Current margin: 47.2%
Projected margin: 52.5%
Grade: D
Comps: 2201
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.170 | 0.444 | 27.4% | $5.1M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.561 | 0.728 | 16.7% | $2.5M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.607 | 0.724 | 11.7% | $774K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |