ML Analysis — HORIZON SPEC HOSPITAL-LAS VEGAS
CCN 292003 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
48
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside17/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-4.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -2.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-32.7%, 23.9%]. P51 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 440741.230 | -0.1589 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 450645.710 | +0.1486 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.004 | +0.0369 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 244569.120 | -0.0209 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.536 | +0.0188 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 42%Turnaround possible (42%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
54.6%
Distress Risk
$6.1M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
11.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P62. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
NV distress rate: 37.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.188 | +0.099 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.536 | +0.075 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 440741.230 | +0.067 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.555 | -0.028 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 100.000 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.361 | +0.006 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.1M
Current margin: -2.2%
Projected margin: 11.5%
Grade: B
Comps: 20
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.451 | 0.774 | 32.3% | $4.8M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.555 | 0.741 | 18.6% | $1.2M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |