ML Analysis — DESERT SPRINGS HOSPITAL MEDICAL CNTR
CCN 290022 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
45
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-5.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -39.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-33.3%, 23.3%]. P49 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 961938.084 | -0.0862 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.053 | +0.0427 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Expense/Bed | 1341365.879 | +0.0389 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.004 | +0.0369 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.076 | -0.0328 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 41%Turnaround possible (41%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
42.2%
Distress Risk
$8.1M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-35.0%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P73. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
NV distress rate: 37.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.739 | -0.198 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.076 | -0.130 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 961938.084 | +0.036 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.192 | -0.023 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.109 | +0.020 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 190.000 | +0.006 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $8.1M
Current margin: -39.4%
Projected margin: -35.0%
Grade: D
Comps: 21
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.076 | 0.392 | 31.6% | $6.7M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.699 | 0.771 | 7.2% | $1.1M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.739 | 0.775 | 3.6% | $241K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 28.4 | [25.0, 75.0] | P46 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |