ML Analysis — NORTHEASTERN NEVADA REGIONAL HOSPITA
CCN 290008 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
52
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health16/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position14/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-3.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 15.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-31.4%, 25.2%]. P54 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 1205769.170 | +0.0556 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.004 | +0.0369 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.125 | +0.0219 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1426486.034 | -0.0213 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 325107.660 | -0.0182 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
59.0%
Distress Risk
$11.4M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
29.0%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P81. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
NV distress rate: 37.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.228 | +0.276 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.202 | +0.113 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.427 | +0.017 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.338 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 59.000 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1426486.034 | +0.009 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $11.4M
Current margin: 15.5%
Projected margin: 29.0%
Grade: B
Comps: 16
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.371 | 0.774 | 40.2% | $6.0M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.228 | 0.721 | 49.4% | $3.3M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.338 | 0.548 | 21.0% | $2.1M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 28.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P48 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |