ML Analysis — SSH - LINCOLN
CCN 282002 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
36
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health16/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position4/20
Demand Defensibility4/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-8.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 30.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-37.0%, 19.7%]. P40 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 269170.542 | +0.1710 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 388032.792 | -0.1663 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.091 | +0.0316 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.178 | -0.0278 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 178734.283 | -0.0230 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
nan%
Distress Risk
$962K
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
41.0%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
NE distress rate: 53.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.461 | +0.060 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.644 | +0.054 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 388032.792 | +0.070 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.257 | -0.050 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 24.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $962K
Current margin: 30.6%
Projected margin: 41.0%
Grade: B
Comps: 65
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.257 | 0.792 | 53.4% | $582K | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.356 | 0.381 | 2.5% | $379K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |