ML Analysis — NEBRASKA SPINE HOSPITAL
CCN 280133 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
39
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health17/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position2/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-0.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 49.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-28.9%, 27.7%]. P61 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 830465.471 | +0.1018 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.176 | -0.0199 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.526 | -0.0197 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 289098.750 | -0.0194 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Bed Count | 34.000 | +0.0179 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$4.1M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
56.9%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
NE distress rate: 53.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.176 | +0.324 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.306 | -0.004 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.268 | -0.045 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 34.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1644986.471 | -0.004 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.1M
Current margin: 49.5%
Projected margin: 56.9%
Grade: C
Comps: 56
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.268 | 0.745 | 47.8% | $3.1M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.176 | 0.324 | 14.8% | $978K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |