ML Analysis — ROUNDUP MEMORIAL HEALTHCARE
CCN 271346 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
48
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-15.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -4.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-43.9%, 12.7%]. P27 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.718 | -0.1486 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Revenue/Bed | 556806.960 | -0.1427 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 582261.480 | +0.1324 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.807 | +0.0491 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.096 | -0.0373 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 25%Low turnaround probability (25%). Structural disadvantages in Reimbursement Quality and Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
45.7%
Distress Risk
$116K
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-3.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P75. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| CLARA MAASS MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 259 |
| PRESENCE SAINTS MARY & ELIZABETH MED | IL | 266 |
| ADVENTIST HEALTH BAKERSFIELD | CA | 254 |
| BRISTOL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | TN | 244 |
| HOLSTON VALLEY HOSP & MED CTR | TN | 286 |
| SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 230 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
MT distress rate: 69.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.803 | -0.258 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.807 | +0.195 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.001 | -0.088 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 556806.960 | +0.060 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.109 | -0.037 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 25.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $116K
Current margin: -4.6%
Projected margin: -3.7%
Grade: D
Comps: 48
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.807 | 0.878 | 7.1% | $116K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |