ML Analysis — GREAT FALLS CLINIC MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 270086 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
66
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health23/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency13/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
30.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 21.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [2.5%, 59.1%]. P98 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 6605298.400 | +0.7016 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 5215890.850 | -0.4384 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 4943115.775 | +0.1350 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.096 | -0.0373 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.996 | -0.0320 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
37.1%
Distress Risk
$8.5M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
27.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P98. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
MT distress rate: 69.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Per Bed | 6605298.400 | -0.297 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.748 | -0.207 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.441 | +0.020 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.108 | +0.019 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 20.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.330 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $8.5M
Current margin: 21.0%
Projected margin: 27.5%
Grade: C
Comps: 49
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.330 | 0.883 | 55.3% | $8.5M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 28.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P44 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |