ML Analysis — SAINT JAMES HEALTHCARE
CCN 270017 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
56
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health6/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position14/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-8.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -7.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-37.2%, 19.4%]. P40 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 2572930.000 | -0.1128 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 2384667.015 | +0.1124 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.096 | -0.0373 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.130 | +0.0205 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Medicaid % | 0.216 | -0.0154 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 35%Turnaround possible (35%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Expense/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
51.9%
Distress Risk
$8.7M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-2.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P71. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
MT distress rate: 69.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.216 | +0.127 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2384667.014 | -0.048 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.494 | +0.029 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.408 | +0.014 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 69.000 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.347 | -0.010 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $8.7M
Current margin: -7.9%
Projected margin: -2.6%
Grade: D
Comps: 2183
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.376 | 0.729 | 35.3% | $5.3M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.347 | 0.444 | 9.8% | $1.9M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.494 | 0.725 | 23.0% | $1.5M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 28.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P45 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |