ML Analysis — ST. LOUIS FORENSIC TREATMENT CENTER
CCN 264010 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
53
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-13.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -50.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-41.5%, 15.1%]. P31 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 176634.651 | -0.1958 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 321306.514 | +0.1646 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.633 | -0.1243 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.655 | +0.0322 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy × Net-to-Gross | 0.615 | +0.0320 | Higher Occupancy × Net-to-Gross increases predicte |
Turnaround: 28%Low turnaround probability (28%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
42.6%
Distress Risk
$0
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-50.0%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P99. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
MO distress rate: 53.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.938 | -0.383 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.655 | +0.128 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 176634.651 | +0.083 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.032 | -0.057 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.001 | -0.056 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 255.000 | +0.014 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $0
Current margin: -50.0%
Projected margin: -50.0%
Grade: D
Comps: 34
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |