ML Analysis — LANDMARK HOSPITAL OF CAPE GIRARDEAU
CCN 262015 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
48
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position14/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-10.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -10.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-38.3%, 18.3%]. P37 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 381670.267 | -0.1672 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 422861.300 | +0.1521 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.120 | +0.0233 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.401 | -0.0226 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 242351.905 | -0.0209 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 33%Turnaround possible (33%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
48.1%
Distress Risk
$3.3M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
17.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P70. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
MO distress rate: 53.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.635 | -0.102 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 381670.267 | +0.071 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.294 | -0.033 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.498 | +0.029 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 30.000 | -0.016 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.093 | +0.004 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.3M
Current margin: -10.8%
Projected margin: 17.8%
Grade: A
Comps: 65
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.410 | 0.608 | 19.8% | $3.0M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.294 | 0.518 | 22.4% | $300K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.5 | [25.0, 75.0] | P62 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |