ML Analysis — PARKLAND HLTH CTR - BONNE TERRE
CCN 261315 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
60
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health17/25
RCM Upside16/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility3/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
66.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 3.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [37.8%, 94.4%]. P100 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 41405641.000 | +5.5594 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 40141057.333 | -4.7408 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 1.099 | -0.0761 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 2041922.022 | +0.0388 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Occupancy | 0.049 | -0.0270 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin |
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
13.0%
Distress Risk
$5.9M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
7.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P0. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| LAGUNA HONDA HOSPITAL | CA | 6 |
| WENATCHEE VALLEY HOSPITAL | WA | 11 |
| MERCY WALWORTH HOSPITAL | WI | 25 |
| FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER CENTER | WA | 20 |
| DANA-FARBER CANCER INSTITUTE | MA | 30 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Moderate
National distress rate: 49.3%
MO distress rate: 53.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Per Bed | 41405641.000 | -2.351 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.049 | +0.442 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.204 | +0.115 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.261 | -0.048 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 3.000 | -0.020 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.241 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.9M
Current margin: 3.0%
Projected margin: 7.8%
Grade: D
Comps: 0
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.049 | 0.680 | 63.1% | $4.2M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.261 | 0.380 | 11.9% | $1.7M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 39.1 | [25.0, 75.0] | P82 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 97.9% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 98.0% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P0 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |