ML Analysis — SULLIVAN COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
CCN 261306 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
48
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health2/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-14.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -17.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-43.2%, 13.4%]. P28 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 527027.889 | -0.1469 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 616614.389 | +0.1282 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.400 | -0.0572 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.890 | -0.0345 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.622 | +0.0284 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 26%Low turnaround probability (26%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
54.5%
Distress Risk
$536K
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-11.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P22. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
MO distress rate: 53.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.388 | +0.128 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.622 | +0.113 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.008 | -0.081 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 527027.889 | +0.062 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 18.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.349 | +0.004 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $536K
Current margin: -17.0%
Projected margin: -11.3%
Grade: D
Comps: 42
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.388 | 0.469 | 8.1% | $536K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.5 | [25.0, 75.0] | P55 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |