ML Analysis — WESTERN MISSOURI MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 260097 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
59
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-5.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -9.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-33.5%, 23.1%]. P49 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 2632439.156 | -0.1201 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 2410167.511 | +0.1160 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1468111.169 | +0.0197 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Bed Count | 45.000 | +0.0162 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.807 | -0.0132 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 41%Turnaround possible (41%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Expense/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
45.2%
Distress Risk
$3.0M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-6.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P22. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
MO distress rate: 53.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.609 | -0.078 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2410167.511 | -0.049 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.333 | -0.016 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 45.000 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.080 | -0.009 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.323 | -0.001 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.0M
Current margin: -9.2%
Projected margin: -6.5%
Grade: D
Comps: 65
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.333 | 0.487 | 15.4% | $2.0M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.597 | 0.651 | 5.4% | $809K | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.609 | 0.640 | 3.1% | $202K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 28.1 | [25.0, 75.0] | P44 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |