ML Analysis — ST JOSEPH MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 260085 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
47
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health6/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility12/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-12.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -12.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-40.5%, 16.1%]. P32 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 577595.700 | -0.1398 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 650564.159 | +0.1240 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.100 | +0.0291 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.451 | +0.0250 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 141144.028 | -0.0243 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 30%Low turnaround probability (30%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
55.5%
Distress Risk
$6.8M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-7.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P43. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
MO distress rate: 53.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.244 | +0.261 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.175 | -0.086 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 577595.700 | +0.059 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 233.000 | +0.011 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.339 | +0.002 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.088 | -0.000 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.8M
Current margin: -12.6%
Projected margin: -7.6%
Grade: D
Comps: 35
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.244 | 0.740 | 49.6% | $3.3M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.175 | 0.304 | 12.9% | $2.0M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.573 | 0.673 | 10.1% | $1.5M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P38 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |