ML Analysis — CAPITAL REGION MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 260047 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
56
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-9.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -17.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-37.7%, 18.9%]. P39 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 2637357.540 | -0.1207 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 2239937.680 | +0.0922 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.062 | -0.0125 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.296 | -0.0081 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 100.000 | +0.0076 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 34%Turnaround possible (34%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Expense/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
48.4%
Distress Risk
$6.7M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-14.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P15. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
MO distress rate: 53.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.451 | +0.069 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2239937.680 | -0.039 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.296 | -0.032 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.068 | -0.021 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 100.000 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.291 | -0.006 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.7M
Current margin: -17.7%
Projected margin: -14.7%
Grade: D
Comps: 42
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.296 | 0.441 | 14.5% | $3.8M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.451 | 0.749 | 29.8% | $2.0M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.640 | 0.705 | 6.5% | $975K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.4 | [25.0, 75.0] | P40 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |