ML Analysis — ALLEGIANCE SPECIALTY HOSPITAL OF GRE
CCN 252013 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-16.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -44.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-44.3%, 12.3%]. P26 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 287150.000 | -0.1804 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 413420.897 | +0.1532 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.125 | -0.0591 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.090 | +0.0322 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 144734.896 | -0.0242 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 24%Low turnaround probability (24%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
48.1%
Distress Risk
$676K
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
-37.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P83. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
MS distress rate: 68.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.003 | -0.086 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.193 | -0.078 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 287150.000 | +0.076 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.532 | +0.035 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.504 | +0.020 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 39.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $676K
Current margin: -44.0%
Projected margin: -37.9%
Grade: C
Comps: 65
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.193 | 0.545 | 35.2% | $461K | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.465 | 0.474 | 0.9% | $135K | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.504 | 0.516 | 1.2% | $80K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 34.4 | [25.0, 75.0] | P78 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.1% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P4 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |