ML Analysis — ALLIANCE HEALTH CENTER
CCN 250151 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
48
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health16/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-17.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 32.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-45.7%, 10.9%]. P24 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 394244.911 | +0.1556 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 584095.266 | -0.1389 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.125 | -0.0591 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 88480.254 | -0.0260 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Medicaid % | 0.267 | -0.0216 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
64.9%
Distress Risk
$3.2M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
39.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P98. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
MS distress rate: 68.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.151 | +0.347 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.267 | +0.178 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.547 | +0.079 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 584095.266 | +0.059 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.250 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 79.000 | -0.009 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.2M
Current margin: 32.5%
Projected margin: 39.5%
Grade: C
Comps: 36
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.151 | 0.552 | 40.1% | $2.6M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.483 | 0.522 | 4.0% | $598K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |