ML Analysis — NESHOBA COUNTY GENERAL HOSPITAL
CCN 250043 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
47
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health2/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position14/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-19.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -19.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-48.2%, 8.4%]. P21 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.125 | -0.0591 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1252405.316 | -0.0456 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 226281.739 | -0.0215 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Occupancy | 0.181 | -0.0196 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1498658.737 | +0.0195 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 20%Low turnaround probability (20%). Structural disadvantages in State Peer Margin and Revenue/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
61.3%
Distress Risk
$3.3M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
-12.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P56. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
MS distress rate: 68.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.181 | +0.320 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.164 | +0.075 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.527 | +0.070 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1252405.316 | +0.019 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.415 | +0.015 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 38.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.3M
Current margin: -19.7%
Projected margin: -12.8%
Grade: C
Comps: 66
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.181 | 0.516 | 33.6% | $2.2M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.421 | 0.480 | 5.9% | $885K | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.527 | 0.560 | 3.3% | $185K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 31.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P64 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |