ML Analysis — BAPTIST MEM HOSPITAL UNION COUNTY
CCN 250006 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
52
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health12/25
RCM Upside13/25
Market Position14/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency3/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-13.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 3.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-41.5%, 15.1%]. P30 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.125 | -0.0591 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1369065.108 | +0.0355 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.084 | +0.0338 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1421047.675 | -0.0221 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.233 | -0.0174 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
54.8%
Distress Risk
$5.1M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
8.0%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P73. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
MS distress rate: 68.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.233 | +0.144 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.382 | +0.133 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.218 | -0.067 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.382 | +0.009 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1421047.675 | +0.009 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 83.000 | -0.009 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.1M
Current margin: 3.7%
Projected margin: 8.0%
Grade: D
Comps: 35
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.385 | 0.525 | 14.0% | $2.1M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.218 | 0.354 | 13.6% | $1.9M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.382 | 0.553 | 17.1% | $1.1M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.1 | [25.0, 75.0] | P52 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |