ML Analysis — NORTH MISSISSIPPI MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 250004 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
57
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position14/20
Demand Defensibility14/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-14.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -5.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-42.3%, 14.3%]. P29 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.125 | -0.0591 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 489.000 | -0.0531 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 6.192 | +0.0422 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.104 | +0.0280 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.251 | -0.0132 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 27%Low turnaround probability (27%). Structural disadvantages in State Peer Margin and Bed Count.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
51.3%
Distress Risk
$12.9M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-3.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P88. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| CLARA MAASS MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 259 |
| PRESENCE SAINTS MARY & ELIZABETH MED | IL | 266 |
| ADVENTIST HEALTH BAKERSFIELD | CA | 254 |
| BRISTOL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | TN | 244 |
| HOLSTON VALLEY HOSP & MED CTR | TN | 286 |
| SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 230 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
MS distress rate: 68.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.187 | +0.098 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.251 | -0.052 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 489.000 | +0.046 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.554 | -0.027 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.398 | +0.012 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1528662.701 | +0.003 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $12.9M
Current margin: -5.5%
Projected margin: -3.7%
Grade: D
Comps: 926
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.251 | 0.321 | 7.0% | $6.1M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.415 | 0.759 | 34.4% | $5.2M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.554 | 0.799 | 24.4% | $1.6M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |