ML Analysis — ST. ELIZABETH HOSP. OF WABASHA INC.
CCN 241335 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency8/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-6.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -7.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.6%, 22.0%]. P46 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2721560.714 | +0.1595 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2919036.071 | -0.1554 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.370 | -0.0486 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.755 | +0.0433 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.639 | -0.0403 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 39%Turnaround possible (39%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$1.9M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-2.4%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
MN distress rate: 45.4%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.376 | +0.139 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.510 | +0.031 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.755 | +0.172 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2721560.714 | -0.067 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 14.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.9M
Current margin: -7.3%
Projected margin: -2.4%
Grade: D
Comps: 85
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.490 | 0.596 | 10.6% | $1.6M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.376 | 0.416 | 4.0% | $263K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |