ML Analysis — ST. MARYS REGIONAL HEALTH CENTER
CCN 240101 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
60
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health14/25
RCM Upside14/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency11/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
5.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 3.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-22.6%, 34.1%]. P75 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 4662062.056 | +0.4303 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 4519677.833 | -0.3526 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 2267521.963 | +0.0463 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.292 | -0.0262 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.583 | -0.0184 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
45.8%
Distress Risk
$3.0M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
4.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P63. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
MN distress rate: 45.4%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Per Bed | 4662062.056 | -0.182 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.464 | +0.042 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.486 | +0.036 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.073 | -0.016 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 36.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.296 | -0.005 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.0M
Current margin: 3.0%
Projected margin: 4.8%
Grade: D
Comps: 69
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.464 | 0.604 | 14.0% | $2.8M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.631 | 0.646 | 1.5% | $229K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P38 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |