ML Analysis — LAKE REGION HEALTHCARE
CCN 240052 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
54
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health6/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-10.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -11.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-38.7%, 17.9%]. P36 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 1866989.512 | -0.0258 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.188 | -0.0192 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 314193.502 | -0.0185 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.252 | -0.0145 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1675698.675 | +0.0135 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 32%Turnaround possible (32%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Expense/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
55.5%
Distress Risk
$4.5M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-8.0%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P49. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
MN distress rate: 45.4%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.188 | +0.313 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.026 | -0.062 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.395 | +0.012 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 80.000 | -0.009 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1675698.675 | -0.006 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.336 | +0.002 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.5M
Current margin: -11.4%
Projected margin: -8.0%
Grade: D
Comps: 22
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.188 | 0.615 | 42.8% | $2.8M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.637 | 0.709 | 7.2% | $1.1M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.395 | 0.436 | 4.1% | $647K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.6 | [25.0, 75.0] | P41 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |