ML Analysis — SSH - ANN ARBOR
CCN 232024 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
47
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside15/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency1/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-5.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 1.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-33.5%, 23.2%]. P49 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 615109.611 | -0.1346 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 607906.750 | +0.1293 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.111 | +0.0260 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.175 | -0.0217 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.583 | -0.0184 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
39.0%
Distress Risk
$1.6M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
8.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P73. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
MI distress rate: 50.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.845 | -0.297 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.003 | -0.086 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.175 | -0.086 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 615109.611 | +0.057 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 36.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.364 | +0.006 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.6M
Current margin: 1.2%
Projected margin: 8.6%
Grade: C
Comps: 74
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.633 | 0.691 | 5.8% | $868K | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.175 | 0.476 | 30.0% | $778K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 28.5 | [25.0, 75.0] | P46 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |