ML Analysis — ASPIRUS IRONWOOD HOSPITAL
CCN 231333 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
54
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-5.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -3.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.0%, 22.7%]. P48 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2617543.120 | +0.1449 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2709786.440 | -0.1297 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.219 | -0.0268 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 25.000 | +0.0193 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.175 | +0.0075 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 40%Turnaround possible (40%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
49.1%
Distress Risk
$4.5M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
3.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P18. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
MI distress rate: 50.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.401 | +0.116 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2617543.120 | -0.061 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.041 | -0.048 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.431 | +0.018 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 25.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.332 | -0.016 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.5M
Current margin: -3.5%
Projected margin: 3.4%
Grade: C
Comps: 72
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.528 | 0.691 | 16.2% | $2.4M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.332 | 0.488 | 15.6% | $1.2M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.401 | 0.533 | 13.2% | $871K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P64 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |