ML Analysis — MH-LAKESHORE CAMPUS
CCN 231320 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
53
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside6/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency11/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-10.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 12.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-38.3%, 18.3%]. P37 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.324 | -0.0352 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.178 | -0.0278 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1744951.208 | +0.0231 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.124 | -0.0228 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 216326.143 | -0.0218 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
57.6%
Distress Risk
$3.2M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
20.0%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P73. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
MI distress rate: 50.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.124 | +0.372 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.023 | -0.066 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.493 | +0.056 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 24.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1744951.208 | -0.010 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.320 | -0.001 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.2M
Current margin: 12.3%
Projected margin: 20.0%
Grade: C
Comps: 67
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.124 | 0.519 | 39.5% | $2.6M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.657 | 0.691 | 3.4% | $511K | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.493 | 0.513 | 2.0% | $97K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P52 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |