ML Analysis — KALKASKA MEMORIAL HEALTH CENTER
CCN 231301 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
59
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency10/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-6.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -9.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.3%, 22.3%]. P47 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 8412516.625 | +0.9538 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 9178225.750 | -0.9265 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.079 | -0.0533 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1817910.271 | +0.0313 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Bed Count | 8.000 | +0.0220 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 40%Turnaround possible (40%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
46.3%
Distress Risk
$4.0M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-3.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P99. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
MI distress rate: 50.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Per Bed | 8412516.625 | -0.403 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.216 | +0.287 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.014 | -0.075 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.517 | +0.066 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.455 | +0.022 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 8.000 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.0M
Current margin: -9.1%
Projected margin: -3.2%
Grade: D
Comps: 383
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.517 | 0.728 | 21.1% | $1.7M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.216 | 0.423 | 20.7% | $1.4M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.531 | 0.593 | 6.2% | $929K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 33.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P77 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.3% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P5 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |