ML Analysis — FOREST HEALTH MEDICAL CENTER LLC
CCN 230144 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
40
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside6/25
Market Position6/20
Demand Defensibility2/15
Operational Efficiency11/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-10.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 12.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-39.2%, 17.4%]. P35 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.400 | -0.0570 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1956228.250 | +0.0526 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.178 | -0.0278 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.109 | -0.0236 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 213487.923 | -0.0219 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
nan%
Distress Risk
$3.2M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
19.4%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
MI distress rate: 50.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.109 | +0.386 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.050 | -0.047 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.421 | +0.023 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1956228.250 | -0.022 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 24.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.2M
Current margin: 12.6%
Projected margin: 19.4%
Grade: C
Comps: 67
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.109 | 0.519 | 41.0% | $2.7M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.421 | 0.513 | 9.2% | $508K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |