ML Analysis — LAKELAND COMMUNITY HOSP WATERVLIET
CCN 230078 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health12/25
RCM Upside9/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-12.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 9.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-40.4%, 16.2%]. P33 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 1912046.231 | +0.0464 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.003 | -0.0297 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 5842.923 | -0.0288 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.258 | -0.0259 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 26.000 | +0.0191 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$4.2M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
17.6%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
MI distress rate: 50.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.003 | +0.485 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.310 | -0.003 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1912046.231 | -0.020 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 26.000 | -0.016 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.376 | +0.003 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.2M
Current margin: 9.2%
Projected margin: 17.6%
Grade: C
Comps: 72
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.003 | 0.533 | 52.9% | $3.5M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.376 | 0.488 | 11.2% | $650K | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.690 | 0.691 | 0.1% | $14K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |