ML Analysis — ST. MARYS OF MICHIGAN
CCN 230077 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
54
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-8.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -32.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-37.2%, 19.4%]. P40 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 2101124.006 | -0.0547 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.112 | +0.0171 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.268 | -0.0113 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.025 | +0.0077 | Higher Medicaid % increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.647 | +0.0069 | Higher Occupancy increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 35%Turnaround possible (35%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Expense/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
43.5%
Distress Risk
$5.1M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-30.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P44. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
MI distress rate: 50.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.647 | -0.114 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.025 | -0.063 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.268 | -0.045 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.250 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 166.000 | +0.002 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1591773.090 | -0.001 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.1M
Current margin: -32.0%
Projected margin: -30.1%
Grade: D
Comps: 54
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.268 | 0.377 | 10.9% | $3.4M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.647 | 0.814 | 16.6% | $1.1M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.725 | 0.764 | 3.9% | $589K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.4 | [25.0, 75.0] | P36 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |