ML Analysis — STRAITH HOSPITAL FOR SPECIAL SURGERY
CCN 230071 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
33
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility2/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-9.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -12.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-38.1%, 18.5%]. P38 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 470379.382 | -0.1548 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 530317.588 | +0.1388 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.013 | +0.0542 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 54997.622 | -0.0271 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Occupancy | 0.117 | -0.0232 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 33%Turnaround possible (33%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$12.9M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
67.9%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
MI distress rate: 50.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.117 | +0.379 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.961 | +0.109 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 470379.382 | +0.065 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 34.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.335 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $12.9M
Current margin: -12.7%
Projected margin: 67.9%
Grade: A
Comps: 73
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.039 | 0.691 | 65.3% | $9.8M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.117 | 0.548 | 43.1% | $2.8M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.335 | 0.478 | 14.2% | $267K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |