ML Analysis — DICKINSON COUNTY HEALTHCARE SYSTEM
CCN 230055 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
57
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-3.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -4.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-31.5%, 25.1%]. P54 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2577849.592 | +0.1394 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2698345.000 | -0.1283 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1365532.403 | +0.0163 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Bed Count | 49.000 | +0.0156 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.892 | -0.0112 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 44%Turnaround possible (44%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
45.6%
Distress Risk
$3.0M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-2.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P6. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
MI distress rate: 50.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.025 | -0.064 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2577849.592 | -0.059 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.338 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 49.000 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.530 | -0.004 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.346 | +0.003 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.0M
Current margin: -4.7%
Projected margin: -2.3%
Grade: D
Comps: 72
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.338 | 0.444 | 10.6% | $1.6M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.629 | 0.691 | 6.2% | $931K | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.530 | 0.607 | 7.7% | $509K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 28.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P44 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |