ML Analysis — MYMICHIGAN MEDICAL CENTER ALPENA
CCN 230036 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
60
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside11/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-5.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 6.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-33.4%, 23.2%]. P49 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 1853448.977 | +0.0383 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 4.852 | +0.0111 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.332 | -0.0110 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1742344.047 | -0.0105 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 614470.702 | -0.0086 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
52.0%
Distress Risk
$5.2M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
8.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P11. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
MI distress rate: 50.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.332 | +0.180 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.047 | -0.042 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1853448.977 | -0.016 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.352 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.308 | -0.003 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 128.000 | -0.003 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.2M
Current margin: 6.0%
Projected margin: 8.2%
Grade: D
Comps: 51
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.332 | 0.777 | 44.5% | $2.9M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.645 | 0.746 | 10.2% | $1.5M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.352 | 0.377 | 2.5% | $688K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.1 | [25.0, 75.0] | P28 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |