ML Analysis — PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL
CCN 230005 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
59
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside11/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-1.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 5.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-29.6%, 27.0%]. P59 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2150651.948 | +0.0798 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2031491.086 | -0.0461 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.135 | +0.0192 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.223 | -0.0163 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 58.000 | +0.0142 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
45.6%
Distress Risk
$5.3M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
9.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P0. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
MI distress rate: 50.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.223 | -0.065 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2150651.948 | -0.034 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.057 | -0.031 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 58.000 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.537 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.339 | +0.002 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.3M
Current margin: 5.5%
Projected margin: 9.8%
Grade: D
Comps: 53
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.223 | 0.395 | 17.2% | $2.5M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.604 | 0.720 | 11.6% | $1.7M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.537 | 0.698 | 16.1% | $1.1M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P43 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |