ML Analysis — FAIRVIEW HOSPITAL
CCN 221302 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
55
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health16/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency15/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
5.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 19.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-22.5%, 34.1%]. P75 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 3938619.375 | +0.3293 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 3158756.042 | -0.1850 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.122 | -0.0566 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.178 | -0.0278 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.601 | +0.0260 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
51.2%
Distress Risk
$7.1M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
27.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P83. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
MA distress rate: 61.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Per Bed | 3938619.375 | -0.139 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.400 | +0.116 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.601 | +0.103 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.594 | +0.046 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.057 | -0.032 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 24.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.1M
Current margin: 19.8%
Projected margin: 27.3%
Grade: C
Comps: 11
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.349 | 0.620 | 27.1% | $4.1M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.400 | 0.860 | 46.0% | $3.0M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 28.1 | [25.0, 75.0] | P44 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |