ML Analysis — DANA-FARBER CANCER INSTITUTE
CCN 220162 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
61
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health11/25
RCM Upside23/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency8/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
0.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -35.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-27.5%, 29.1%]. P64 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 84801535.067 | -10.2426 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 62787205.500 | +8.5440 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 55097923.073 | +1.7988 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.122 | -0.0566 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.401 | -0.0226 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 52%Turnaround possible (52%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Expense/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
1.7%
Distress Risk
$55.7M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-32.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P83. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PARKLAND HLTH CTR - BONNE TERRE | MO | 3 |
| LAGUNA HONDA HOSPITAL | CA | 6 |
| WENATCHEE VALLEY HOSPITAL | WA | 11 |
| MERCY WALWORTH HOSPITAL | WI | 25 |
| FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER CENTER | WA | 20 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Low
National distress rate: 49.3%
MA distress rate: 61.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Per Bed | 62787205.500 | -3.613 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.878 | -0.327 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.016 | -0.073 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 30.000 | -0.016 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.348 | -0.009 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.351 | +0.004 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $55.7M
Current margin: -35.1%
Projected margin: -32.1%
Grade: D
Comps: 16
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.348 | 0.601 | 25.3% | $55.7M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.633 | 0.634 | 0.1% | $16K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.6 | [25.0, 75.0] | P63 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |